The Secret Service – and political rhetoric – are again in the spotlight following Sunday’s apparent assassination attempt.
Former President Donald Trump went unharmed in what the FBI is investigating as the second assassination attempt against him in two months – an incident that raises new questions about his Secret Service protection and about political violence in America.
Here are five things we’ll be watching as the probe unfolds.
What Will Change for Trump’s Security?
Trump’s Secret Service security was upgraded after the attempt on his life on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania, but has still been short of what a sitting president gets. Will it be upgraded again?
- One of the eye-catching details in an FBI affidavit in support of charges against Ryan Routh, the suspect in the case, is that he appears to have waited in the bushes on the edge of a Trump-owned golf course for nearly 12 hours. When the incident occurred, the former president was playing the course, at most 500 yards away.
Golf courses are notoriously difficult for the Secret Service to secure, but this indicates no law enforcement personnel cased the perimeter before Trump teed off. Would more personnel have made that possible?
- “I would imagine that the next time he comes to the golf course, there’ll probably be a little more people around the perimeter,” Palm Beach County Sheriff Ric Bradshaw told reporters on Sunday.
Other questions: Will Trump be encouraged to play less golf? Or change his schedule around more frequently, to make it harder to predict where he will be? You know those candidate stops at diners or bars? For security reasons, those are rarely announced in advance. Routine is an enemy of security.
Will the Secret Service Get More Resources?
There appears to be bipartisan support – from the White House to Democrats and Republicans in Congress – for giving the agency more resources.
- The Secret Service got a little over $1 billion for fiscal year 2024 for “protection of persons and facilities.” In 2020, the most recent previous presidential campaign year, it had $754.5 million.
“The Service needs more help,” Biden told reporters Monday. “I think the Congress should respond to their needs, if they need more Service people.”
Scott MacFarlane of CBS News reported Monday that Biden asked Congress in August for special permission to boost Secret Service spending in the coming weeks. MacFarlane also reported that Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe had written to Congress a week ago asking for “additional resources.”
Two things are not clear, however:
- To what extent the new resources could be used before Election Day
- Whether they would be paired with required reforms of the way the agency does business
Reuters reports the Secret Service is about 400 employees shy of levels Congress has authorized.
Will There Be More Attempts?
A superheated, polarized election year environment, in a country where most adults can get their hands on firearms that can be accurate hundreds of yards from their target? There are surely steps that can be taken at individual events to reduce the potential threat, but the overall climate is worrisome.
In campaign years, the Service typically enlists personnel from other law enforcement agencies, at the federal level and the state and the local levels. They can be assigned to secure perimeters, surveil a crowd or (cough) guard a rooftop. Some Secret Service jobs have analogs in other parts of the federal government or even state and local police – countersniper teams, for instance, or drone flyers. But the actual suit-and-earpiece-and-mirrored-sunglasses bodyguards take time to train up.
Will Democrats Adjust Their Rhetoric?
The former president is now leading Republicans in claiming Democratic messaging – specifically, the contention that he poses a threat to American democracy – led to the incidents in Butler and West Palm Beach. Democrats have pointed to the Jan. 6 ransacking of the Capitol by Trump supporters who violently interrupted the peaceful handover of power as proof positive that he is such a threat.
Though Routh reportedly echoed the “democracy” talking point on social media, it’s not clear at this stage to what degree either suspect was motivated by that kind of language. Democrats have their history of blaming a relatively mundane political exhortation for an ensuing act of violence. Trump has his personal yearslong history of inflammatory rhetoric.
It seems unlikely that Biden’s party will abandon that “threat to democracy” message entirely, rather than emphasize they have a “ballots, not bullets” philosophy. But we’ll be watching to see whether there are adjustments.
Will the Suspect Be Charged With Attempted Assassination?
So far, Routh only faces two weapons charges, not a formal accusation that he planned to try to kill Trump. But that could easily change.
And, no, “he did not fire a shot” wouldn’t spare him. The man accused of trying to kill Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh didn’t actually attack the Trump appointee. He still got charged.
- I’m no lawyer but “he spent nearly 12 hours in the bushes with a scoped long gun aimed inside the golf course where Trump was playing a round” doesn’t scream “exonerated.”
The fact that we’ve had two incidents in two months doesn’t bode well for the country, either.
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