As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. edges toward endorsing Trump, analysts say the ‘Camelot’ defection poses no danger to Democrats.
Friday looms large in Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign as the independent candidate weighs whether to remain in the race or drop out and possibly endorse former President Donald Trump.
His campaign announced Wednesday that he will address the nation from Arizona about his path forward on Friday – the same day that Trump will be in the state. If he endorses Trump, as some reports suggest, he will make history as the first member of the prominent Democratic dynasty to openly cast his lot with Republicans.
And despite early concerns among Democrats that his last name alone could sway votes away from the party’s standard-bearer, analysts say that a bizarre stream of personal and political disclosures means that even an alliance with Trump is unlikely to do much harm now.
‘Camelot’ in Name Only
Since the beginning of his campaign, pollsters and political strategists pondered whether the allure and nostalgia surrounding the Kennedy name would be enough to lure some disaffected Democrats into a race where every vote would be critical.
David M. Kennedy, a history professor at Stanford University who is no relation to the candidate, says it was reasonable to think his baseline appeal would be to longtime historically committed Democrats given his family’s longtime connection with the party.
John Shaw, director of Southern Illinois University-Carbondale’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute and an expert on President John F. Kennedy, notes that the Kennedy name is still “magic” in American politics and especially in the Democratic Party.
Understandably, Kennedy has largely depended on his heritage to give him leverage, going as far as to repurpose an old ad from his uncle’s 1960 presidential run during the Super Bowl this year for nostalgia purposes. And to an extent, the effort has worked as the mystique and allure of the name is what has driven a sizable portion of his base to him.
But as his connection to conspiracy theories, largely on vaccines, became more apparent and he decided to pursue an independent candidacy, the “Camelot” allure appeared to pass over him.
It didn’t help that several family members publicly distanced themselves from Kennedy, lambasting him on social media for tarnishing their name and declaring their support for President Joe Biden and now Vice President Kamala Harris.
Also unhelpful are the bizarre stories that have trickled out in recent months – including that doctors found a worm in his brain that ate a portion of it and then died. The effects, including mental fogginess and memory loss, were so severe that a friend was concerned he may have had a tumor.
Another head-scratcher came when he admitted to dumping a dead bear cub in Central Park nearly a decade after it was discovered. A photo of Kennedy with the bear emerged after Kennedy posted a video with Roseanne Barr recounting the event in an attempt to get ahead of the story.
While Kennedy has attempted to capitalize on the legacy, Shaw says his “troubled personal life and erratic – even quirky – policy agenda, significantly limits his political appeal.”
Kennedy, the Stanford history professor, also notes that the family name carries less clout than it used to.
“I think he’s trading on a diminishing asset. It’s more and more difficult for him to claim that mantle of the Kennedy mystique, especially when his own family goes to pains to disassociate themselves from it.”
Polls Show Him Hurting Trump More Than Democrats
Initial polls seemed to show that Kennedy’s candidacy would hurt Biden more than Trump, with 32% of his support coming from 2020 Biden voters and 24% from those who cast a ballot for Trump.
Seeking to counteract the blow, PACs aligned with Biden, and Democrats quickly organized against Kennedy.
The ground subsequently shifted, with a poll from The New York Times and Siena College in late June and early July finding 40% of Kennedy’s base coming from Trump and 38% from Biden.
A recent Marquette University Law School poll showed Kennedy taking 3% from both Democrats and Republicans and 13% from independents. But the 13% he takes comes at the expense of Trump and he takes only 8% of left-leaning independents and 23% of Republican-leaning independents.
A similar poll from The New York Times and Siena College conducted shortly after Biden exited the race found that when his supporters were asked to choose between Harris and Trump, 50% chose Trump but only 21% chose Harris. The remaining 29% either said they didn’t know or did not answer.
The surveys come as little surprise as Kennedy himself has made overtures to Trump and Republicans.
Hours before the attempted assassination of Trump last month, Kennedy was in talks with him over endorsing his campaign and potentially taking a job in his second administration. In a video posted to social media by Kennedy’s son and then later deleted, the two could be heard discussing doubts about vaccines and a potential appeal from Trump to Kennedy for an endorsement.
Analysts Say a Trump Endorsement Does Not Spell Trouble for Democrats
Kennedy’s running mate, wealthy Silicon Valley attorney Nicole Shanahan, said in an interview with podcast host Tom Bilyeu that the campaign is considering endorsing Trump in exchange for a role in a second Trump administration.
In the episode, posted Tuesday, Shanahan framed the potential decision on its impact on Harris, saying Kennedy pulls more from Trump than her.
“The question is … is the risk of a Harris-Walz presidency worth us staying in? And that’s the question we have to ask ourselves right now,” she said.
Yet despite her comments, analysts say they expect little to no impact when his supporters are cut loose from him.
Moe Vela, a former senior adviser to Biden, calls the potential alliance disgusting. Pointing to Kennedy’s background as an environmental lawyer versus Trump’s record of resisting environmental reform, he calls the move “one of the top most hypocritical moves” he’s ever seen in his political career.
Vela says that Kennedy’s exiting the race will likely be a “non-factor” and that his very small percentage of support will likely split 70-30 for Harris. He adds that the assumption the majority of his supporters will go to Trump is “dangerous,” adding that the polls suggesting otherwise don’t reflect the reality now that Harris is in the game.
He notes that regardless of what percentage does go for Trump, Democrats, and Harris are already doing the work to counteract it.
“You want to talk about Kennedy-esque? The Harris campaign and Kamala Harris is as Kennedy-esque as you’re going to get in the sense that she represents what the Kennedys fought for their whole life.”
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, calls a potential Kennedy endorsement of Trump “unimportant,” adding that Kennedy’s entire candidacy has become a punch line.
“Even if there’s a full alliance between Trump and Kennedy, I doubt it will yield many votes for Trump. The bear cub, if still living and able to endorse, would have more of an impact.”
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