Will he stick to policy? Will he debut a new nickname? In the end, does any of it matter?
Key Takeaways:
- Trump said he agreed to debate Harris on Sept. 10.
- Harris’ entrance into the race reinvigorated the election for Democrats, and Trump needs to find a way to stunt that momentum.
- The former president likely has at least one big objective for the debate, and that’s to define Harris.
Former President Donald Trump will have something to prove when he debates Vice President Kamala Harris next month.
Trump this week said he agreed to a Sept. 10 debate with Harris after much waffling. But he’s already setting the stage for his performance, alleging that the network is “unfair” in an attempt to blunt expectations in case things go poorly for him.
“I have reached an agreement with the Radical Left Democrats for a Debate with Comrade Kamala Harris,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business, on Tuesday, September 10th, in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.”
It’s a familiar play for Trump. It’s the same play he made about the 2020 election and that he continues to make for the 2024 election: If he doesn’t win, it’s because it’s rigged against him.
The move works for Trump’s base, according to Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. But it likely doesn’t expand his voter pool.
“Debates very often are reinforcing rather than persuading,” Miringoff says.
But the race is close enough that both candidates feel a debate is worth it to accomplish certain things – especially if there is any wiggle room among independent voters still making up their minds.
“In the end, the base of both is probably pretty baked in, but that little competitive edge is still out there,” Miringoff says.
Trump’s Big Debate Goal
The former president likely has at least one big objective for the debate, and that’s to define Harris.
Harris’ entrance into the race reinvigorated the election for Democrats, and Trump needs to find a way to stunt that momentum. “I think that they’re thinking the debate is the best way to kind of reset the campaign again to as it was when Biden pulled out,” Miringoff says.
Trump has already tried out a few nicknames for Harris, including “Laffin’ Kamala,” “Lyin’ Kamala” and “Comrade Kamala.”
“‘Comrade Kamala’ is probably the least effective because that harkens back to an era that most people aren’t necessarily plugged into,” Miringoff says. “That may have worked in the 50s and 60s and maybe in the 70s. It’s probably not as strong a case right now.”
He has also called Harris “crazy,” “dumb as a rock” and a “radical left lunatic.” This week, he reposted a lewd remark on Truth Social involving a picture of Harris and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Trump has defended his attacks on Harris, saying he is “entitled” to them.
But Miringoff says Trump’s efforts to define Harris so far haven’t been successful and that his campaign is running out of time.
“What I’m going to be looking for more than anything, is, have they come up with that one way that they’re going to try to define her because the longer this goes on, the more defined she is in her terms,” Miringoff says.
Will the Debate Move the Needle?
It’s tough to say exactly what could happen following the debate. A good performance by Trump followed by favorable media coverage could affect independent voters.
“Both of the campaigns are thinking about swing voters,” says Seth Masket, a political science professor at the University of Denver. “They are thinking about the undecided voters in competitive states. Those are not the folks who are necessarily going to be watching a debate, but they’ll hear about it later from friends. They’ll see clips on the news.”
Ultimately, the debate is not likely to move the needle dramatically in either direction, as the election continues to look close. But debates can still be consequential – just look at what happened after Trump debated Biden in June.
“There probably would have been good reason for him to debate Biden again, given how the last debate went,” Masket says. “With Harris, it’s more of a crapshoot.”
Trump claimed that the September debate rules will be the same as the June debate, with one person’s microphone muted as the other speaks. But the Harris campaign hasn’t publicly agreed to the terms yet.
The Harris campaign likely wants Trump to have access to a microphone in the hopes of capitalizing on something he says off the cuff. A media moment like that would be bad news for Trump as Republicans beg the former president to stay on message and focus on policy.
Whether Trump can resist the urge remains to be seen, but the muted microphones did work well for him during the June debate. However, given Harris’ recent successes, Trump might be more willing to swing for the fences during the September debate. Miringoff says the debate is an opportunity for Trump to disrupt Harris’ momentum.
“Is there something new in their bag of tricks that they can play at the debate, which catches people’s attention and maybe her off guard?”
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